It depends on what kind of "slowdown". Will it be a trade-related slowdown hitting mostly manufacturing, or will it spill onto a full-fledged growth contraction, accompanied by spiking volatility and sharp declines in equities?
Most central banks in the developed world are truly independent. Central bank independence began in the mid 1990s with the RBNZ being the first to gain constitution independence. The Bank of England became officially independent in 1997-98.
CentBank independence is crucial because it is in the interest of the economy --only when applied correctly. Any govt interference for political means is like taking steroids before a race, which you may win, while ignoring the long term side-ffects.
Im not sure if i understood correctly, but your post seems to imply that the Fed will do QE4 for political purposes? I dont think that is the case. I continue to expect that any decision by the Fed to trigger QE4 would be out of economic need (deepening yield curve inversions) rather than pressure from Trump.
So it would be for the Fed to worry about that would look, not for Trump
I do not see him being impeached. But if he does, it would be a major negative event for the market.No doubt.
I agree with your choice Q12020- Perhaps Fed will signal the start of QE4 at the March 2020 FOMC meeting.
With regards to your point about 2020 being a presidential year, this in fact could be a deterrent (obstacle) to the Fed doing QE because it would not want to be seen as delivering a politically-motivated policy decision.
It's interesting you say QE4 will drive LT borrowing costs. If you're referring to QE4 driving up 10-year yields, then I would assume that QE4 would have to be deemed so inflationary to the extent of boosting yields. The question is: At what point in time would yields rise after the start of QE4. We shall see.
Thanks for your comments. Let's see them first buying back bonds --perhaps around Q1 2020. The latest liquidity injections suggest that renewed balance sheet accumulation is highly likely.
https://twitter.com/alaidi/status/1174260108886458370
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(11 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(11 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(11 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (11 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (11 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (11 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(11 months ago)
إستعمال تحليل الإنترماركت والتحليل الفني الكلاسيكي لتداول الذهب و الناسداك و السندات. شاهد هنا
Using intermarket technicals analysis to trade XAUUSD Nasdaq100 and Bonds.Watch here.
Latest Hot-Chart - May 16
Dax 200 DMA Deviation
You remember we went short Dax40 in late March based on the 13% 200 DMA extension, which gave us at least a 500-pt gain.
View Hot-Chart..
How about 20%. What's your basis
Ashraf
Ashraf
Ashraf
Thks for your input. EURUSD did well to hold above the 1.1030 horiz base, now eyeing another stab at 1.1110.
Ashraf
Ashraf
CentBank independence is crucial because it is in the interest of the economy --only when applied correctly. Any govt interference for political means is like taking steroids before a race, which you may win, while ignoring the long term side-ffects.
Deeper slowdown near end of Q1 2020.
Ashraf
Im not sure if i understood correctly, but your post seems to imply that the Fed will do QE4 for political purposes? I dont think that is the case. I continue to expect that any decision by the Fed to trigger QE4 would be out of economic need (deepening yield curve inversions) rather than pressure from Trump.
So it would be for the Fed to worry about that would look, not for Trump
I do not see him being impeached. But if he does, it would be a major negative event for the market.No doubt.
Ashraf
I agree with your choice Q12020- Perhaps Fed will signal the start of QE4 at the March 2020 FOMC meeting.
With regards to your point about 2020 being a presidential year, this in fact could be a deterrent (obstacle) to the Fed doing QE because it would not want to be seen as delivering a politically-motivated policy decision.
It's interesting you say QE4 will drive LT borrowing costs. If you're referring to QE4 driving up 10-year yields, then I would assume that QE4 would have to be deemed so inflationary to the extent of boosting yields. The question is: At what point in time would yields rise after the start of QE4. We shall see.
Ashraf
Thanks for your comments. Let's see them first buying back bonds --perhaps around Q1 2020. The latest liquidity injections suggest that renewed balance sheet accumulation is highly likely. https://twitter.com/alaidi/status/1174260108886458370
Ashraf